The Dollar Cost Averaging Experiment Results thru April 30 – The DOW Shines?

Recall the objective of this experiment is to produce double digit returns by dollar cost averaging into either financial assets or hard assets based on where we are in the cycle.  I contend that we are in the hard asset phase.  Read “The No-Brainer Investment Strategy to Double Digit Returns” for more details.

There is no question that the DOW has been the star of the year or has it?  It has definitely garnered all of the headlines.  How many realize that year to date gold is up more than the DOW?  I was surprised and I watch this stuff every day.  Gold as measured by its ETF (GLD) is up 7.9% v. DOW at 6.4%.  Who would have thunk it?

That’s all well and good, but the Dollar Cost Averaging Experiment is trailing the S&P 500.  I think that the fortunes are going to turn soon.  Let’s see what this month brings…..

Table 1. CEF, GDX vs. S&P 500

  CEF GDX S&P 500 CEF GDX S&P 500
  Closing Price Closing Price Closing Price Mon. Return Mon. Return Mon. Return
4/30/07 9.44 39.56 1482.37 0.4% 0.0% 4.3%
3/30/07 9.40 39.57 1420.86 -2.7% -0.8% 1.0%
2/28/07 9.66 39.90 1406.82 1.2% 0.8% -2.2%
1/31/07 9.55 39.60 1438.24 2.2% -0.8% 1.4%
12/29/06 9.34 39.91 1418.30      

Note: $1000 invested each month in CEF (total $4000) is worth $3980.67 (-0.5%).
Note: $1000 invested each month in GDX (total $4000) is worth $3981.45 (-0.5%).
Note: $1000 invested each month in S&P 500 (total $4000) is worth $4172.85 (4.3%).

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