07 – Trade What You See; Not What You Think

miked | Jul 14, 2007 | Comments 0

The DOW 14,000 watch begins this week. It was only a few months ago (February) that it looked like we were going to crash down through 12,000. How the tides have turned? The bears had their heads handed to them on Thursday as the DOW spike up 284 points. It was the largest one day move since October 2002.

Larry Kudlow of CNBC’s Kudlow and Company loves to have Doug Kass (a perma-bear) on his show on days like Thursday. Kass seems like a really nice guy, but he has been wrong about the market for a long time. To a certain degree, I agree with Kass. I think that the market is ahead of itself and due for a slow down. However, it doesn’t matter what I think. The market is going to do what it does and my job is to react to the market.

The general market was led again by the SOX up 3.0% for the week. This bodes well as the most powerfully rallies are typically led by the semis. The other indices fell in line – DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were up 2.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% respectively. Commodities were not to be outdone – Gold, Silver, and Oil were up 1.9%, 2.8% and 1.8% respectively for the week.

Look for some fireworks next week as Intel, Google, Caterpillar and a host of others release their earnings. The semis are heating up. The commodities are still hot. I am expecting to see a lot of Kass over the second half of the year.

How did The Time & Money Group portfolios do this week?