Will Research in Motion Blow Investors Away at WES

On March 31st, Research in Motion (RIMM) released its quarterly earnings.  Prior to the report, every day for at least six weeks, I heard about RIMM’s storied pre-earnings run.  It reached a feverish pitch on March 8 – when the stock price penetrated a price gap from September.  In the technical analysis world, gaps that are penetrated are often filled.  The calls for $82 were all over the RIMM stream on StockTwits.

I use technicals as well as fundamentals  in my stock analysis.  My fundamental work is not the traditional examining of PEs, Book Values, etc., but trying to understand the catalyst that are driving the stock.

Apple’s iPhone has revolutionized the industry.  Every cell phone manufacturer is under tremendous pressure to design a competing phone.  Unfortunately, for stockholders the companies are not delivering and the stocks are taking a thumping. Nokia became the latest victim losing 13% of its value on Thursday.

During RIMM’s earnings conference call their CEO, Jim Balsillie, attempted to calm investor’s concerns about the future.  He said, “If you could see the roadmap, you’d be blown away.”  Blowing away time arrives on Monday 4/26 at the Blackberry WES 2010 Symposium.

In my opinion, unless their next phone featuring an updated OS and browser is shipping in June – it’s back to the woodshed for the stock.  Apple’s refreshed iPhone will be released in June.  Every day RIMM doesn’t have a competing phone it’s losing revenue and mind share.

I will be listening intently for a June release date of their next “super phone”.

For the record, I am short RIMM, PALM, NOK, MOT and long AAPL (For Investors the Smartphone War is Over). Positions could change at any time.