Homebuilder Don Tomnitz – CEO of the Year

Don Tomnitz, CEO DR Horton, has to be the early leader for CEO of the year.  On March 7, he made the most honest statement uttered from a CEO, in the home building industry, in recent memory.  Tomnitz said, “I don’t want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year.” Mari Bartiromo, CNBC reporter, couldn’t believe that a CEO would use such language. 

Earlier that very same day, Robert Toll, CEO Toll Brothers, suggested that the real estate market had bottomed.  “I would guess, and that’s all it is, it would be another four or five months before you finally burn off inventory in most of the markets.”   Read my previous article, “The Real Estate Market: Why Bottom is a Dirty Word.”

Apparently eight days later on March 15th, Mr. Toll had a different story to tell.  Continue reading “Homebuilder Don Tomnitz – CEO of the Year”

No Income, No Job and No Assets – You are Approved

I remember refinancing my mortgage about four years ago.  The process went much smoother than I expected.  In previous refinancings, I typically met face to face with the broker, filled out a long application and provided my tax records.  However, this time I simply called the broker and closed 30 days later.  No meeting.  No application. No tax records.  I had used this broker before, so I assumed that my records were on file.  However, this blew me away – no appraisal.  Well at least not a traditional appraisal. 

About three weeks into the process, I began wondering when would the appraisal be scheduled.  A few more days went by.  Then the broker called saying that we needed to close by Friday in order to lock-in the rate.  I said that’s fine, but what about the appraisal.  He said that’s taken care of – we did a drive-by.  I have heard of drive-bys and it is typically not something you want to be a part of.  However, this was the good kind.

Continue reading “No Income, No Job and No Assets – You are Approved”

The Real Estate Market: Why “Bottom” is a Dirty Word

Last week, CNBC reporter, Mari Bartiromo was quite appalled by the language Don Tomnitz, CEO DR Horton, used in describing the state of the real estate market:  “I don’t want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year.”  I think that Maria over reacted a little.  Since, when did suck become such a bad word?  It is definitely not on my list of banned four letter words, but I do avoid using it around children.  They have enough issues to worry about without having to distinguish between acceptable and unacceptable four letter words. 

Another word that I refuse to use around kids is bottom. It has six letters, but in my book it is right up there with the most inappropriate four letter ones especially when describing the real estate market.  Maybe this is just a quirk of mine, since it didn’t trouble Maria at all when Robert Toll, CEO Toll Brothers, suggested that the real estate market had bottomed.  “I would guess, and that’s all it is, it would be another four or five months before you finally burn off inventory in most of the markets.”

So, who really used inappropriate language?  Has the real estate market bottomed? Excuse me.  Has the real estate market reached its lowest point?  Each CEO has three character witnesses.  Let’s see who has the stronger case.

Continue reading “The Real Estate Market: Why “Bottom” is a Dirty Word”

D.R. Horton CEO: ‘2007 is going to suck’

You gotta love a CEO that tells it like it is. 

March 7 2007: 5:08 PM EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) — D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder, expects homebuilders’ pricing power to return by January 2008, after the hard-hit industry works its way through inventory of unsold homes, the company’s chief executive said Wednesday. 

“I don’t think ’08 is going to be a great year, but it’s going to be much better than ’07,” CEO Don Tomnitz told the Citigroup Industrial Manufacturing Conference.

He also said: “’07 is going to suck.” 

More …

Honesty is great, but Tomnitz needs to take some take some lessons from good ole Robert “What’s He Smoking” Toll on managing expectations.  Minutes earlier What’s He Smoking had a different perspective on the state the housing market.

March 7 2007: 3:21 PM EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) — Luxury home builder Toll Brothers said on Wednesday it could “burn off” its inventory in many markets in four or five months if its lower cancellation rate persists, suggesting the weak U.S. housing market may be at a bottom.

“I would guess, and that’s all it is, it would be another four or five months before you finally burn off inventory in most of the markets,” Robert Toll, chief executive and chairman, said at Citigroup’s Global Industrial Manufacturing Conference.

More …

What’s He Smoking must not have passed the peace pipe to Tomnitz today.  Maybe this wll teach him to share. 

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Time to Buy Subprime Lenders – You Gotta be Kidding!

One of the problems with Financial TV is that they have 24 hours to fill with programming.  How can you fill that much time without including some “not so bright” people?  Every morning I wake up around 5 am or so and turn on Bloomberg.  I lay in bed and catch up on what has happened in the stock markets around the world until around 6:30am.  On yesterday, they had a “not so bright” on who said that it may be time to buy certain subprime lenders.  All I could do is shake my head and turn off the TV.

Apparently there are two kinds of subprime lenders.  Ones who hold on to the loans and the other that sells their loans.  I don’t remember which one he said that it was time to buy, but it doesn’t matter.  Obviously this guy was an analyst for the subprime lenders and his job is to push those stocks.  Whenever you watch these shows you must determine what is the person trying to sell and then determine if you want to believe anything that comes out of their mouth.

Continue reading “Time to Buy Subprime Lenders – You Gotta be Kidding!”