Using Basket Trading to Get Ahead of the Herd

Wall Street has been advocating diversification forever.  I have my cynical reasons why, but that’s a story for a different day.  However, in certain sectors diversification is necessary.  Gold mining is a great example.  I have been trading these stocks for a number of years.  Apparently a 10-15% meltdown, when least expected, is part of a gold miner’s DNA. On the flip side, since the industry is consolidating 20-30% pops to the upside are not uncommon either. 

Many analysts suggest buying at least 10 stocks to sufficiently protect your self in highly volatile sectors.  Thus, commissions could become excessive if trading multiple sectors in a small account.  Mutual Funds were the first vehicles designed to provide sufficient diversification at a reasonable cost. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) are Wall Street’s latest incarnation and have become extremely popular.  Their fees are often lower than mutual funds and offer some trading advantages over mutual funds.  ETFs are great, but I contend that the next best thing is already here with basket trading.

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100 Stocks to Combat Rising Food Prices

The government’s big ethanol push is driving up the prices of everything including a night at the movies.  I just heard on the news that the price of popcorn has increased due to higher corn prices as more corn is being used to produce ethanol.  It is time to think like an investor and put a hedge in place to offset rising prices at the grocery store as well as the movie theater.  Purchase a few of these agriculture stocks and not only will it make up for higher prices, but it will put a few extra  bucks in your pocket. 

Our survey begins with the Capital Goods & Services sector – home of Farming Machinery giant Deere Company.  Deere is a household name, but have you heard of CNH Global NV (CNH)?  The company is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.  It manufactures and distributes agricultural and construction equipment worldwide.  The company generates $13B in revenue – making it about half the size of Deere.  As the saying goes, good things come in small packages as the market has bid it up 90% year to date. Continue reading “100 Stocks to Combat Rising Food Prices”

How I Made Eric Bolling’s Agricultural Stock Play My Own

On Thursday, June 15, the Admiral, Eric Bolling, of CNBC’s Fast Money, presented an update to his Agricultural Stock trade (Ag Play).  To capitalize on the trend of higher commodity prices allowing farmers to spend more money on new equipment, higher yielding seeds and better fertilizers – he constructed a four stock portfolio. 

The stocks are Monsanto Company (MON), a seed producer, Agrium Inc. (AGU), a fertilizer supplier, Bunge Limited (BG), a grain and seed processor and Deere (DE), a farming equipment company.  I have been trading energy as well as precious and base metal stocks for a number of years.  The idea of playing soft commodities via the stock market was quite appealing. I wrote about it in “Eric Bolling’s Agriculture Stock Play:  Is it Too Late?” 

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Eric Bolling’s Agriculture Stock Play: Is it Too Late?

My jaw hit the ground last week when Eric Bolling, of CNBC’s Fast Money, stated that his agriculture play was up 59% year to date.  It hit the floor a second time when he mentioned how he was playing the sector.  I have been trading commodity stocks for awhile, primarily gold, energy and base metal producers.  The soft commodities (coffee, sugar, grains) have caught my attention on occasion.  However, I couldn’t figure out how to trade them via the stock market and I wasn’t interested in the futures market.

Jim Rogers stirred my interest a few years ago when I read his book “Hot Commodities.”  He made it quite clear that we are in the midst of bull market in all “real things” not only oil, natural gas, and metals, but also wheat, corn, soybeans, etc.  However, Rogers cut his teeth as a commodity trader.  He believes that the best way to participate is to buy the underlying commodity (futures) or a commodity index fund. Since futures are not for me and mutual funds are right up there with watching paint dry, his book didn’t provide any implementation insight that I could leverage. Continue reading “Eric Bolling’s Agriculture Stock Play: Is it Too Late?”

Stalking a Trade Thru the Eyes of a Trader

I am often asked how I determine entries and exits for my trades.  Let’s take a look at a real time example and walk through the process.  It is currently 11:00 AM New York Time on Tuesday June 19, 2007.

First and most importantly, I determine how much risk I am willing to take on a trade.  My preference is to limit risk to 1-2% of my portfolio.  In this example, I will use a portfolio size of $50,000 and limit the risk to 1%.  So that means I am willing to only lose $500 on a trade (1% of $50K).  Continue reading “Stalking a Trade Thru the Eyes of a Trader”