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Hovnanian: Housing Market Has Bottomed

It was only a matter of time before another Homebuilder CEO would claim that the housing market had bottomed.  Ara Hovnanian,  CEO Hovnanian Enterprises, put his stake in the ground on yesterday 9/14/07 per Bloomberg.  Apparently he learned from Robert Toll’s pronouncement in March.  He added a caveat to his claim, “The bottom is very near but I think it’s going to stay along the bottom for a while before a recovery.”   

If the bottom is in why is Hovanian having a fire sale this weekend or as they are dubbing it the “Deal of the Century.”  The company is offering discounts of up to almost $150,000 on homes.

If there is one thing that I have learned from the stock market – it is that picking bottoms is a losing proposition.   Matter of fact, I will pass on the first 15-20% off the bottom.  The bottom can only be identified in hindsight.  In other words, the bottom is in when Homebuilders start raising prices not having fire sales.

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Trading Thru the Housing Blood Bath

You don’t have to be a brain surgeon to realize that housing market is not going to turn around overnight.  Even the homebuilder CEOs are finally admitting that this environment “sucks.”  Economist Nouriel Roubini has been calling this blood bath for what is for awhile.  I haven’t seen him on Kudlow and Company in awhile.  My guess is that he is a little too bearish for old Larry.

Excuse me as I digress for a moment, but speaking of bears….  Peter Schiff is by far the most bearish guest to ever set foot in CNBC studios.  It cracks me up when they invite him on the show.  In the midst of possibly the most bullish market since 2000, Schiff, a U.S. market bear, is out performing most bulls by investing in foreign securities.  It throws the bulls for a loop in the bull/bear debates as they expect him to sit in a corner eating humble pie.  At the end of the debates, they wish that they were more bearish.  LOL – Sorry, sometimes I write this stuff for my own entertainment.

Back to Nouriel…. Continue reading “Trading Thru the Housing Blood Bath”

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Housing Melt-Down Not Limited to Subprime Borrowers

There are many caught in the cross fires of the housing bubble.  Here is a story of a real estate investor who got caught up in the mania in 2005.  He bought a waterfront property in the hopes of subdividing it, creating a luxury “dream” home for himself and another to sell for profit. Unfortunately, he is stuck with a luxury vacation home no one wants and his unfinished dream home is ready for auction.

Source: BBN TV

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Real Estate Leaves One Investor High and Dry

Casey Serin has become the poster child for “liar-loans” also known as Alt-A loans.  I have written several articles (here and here) on the Subprime/Alt-A debacle.  Casey’s use of these loans played a critical role in his multiple foreclosures.   IndyMac (NDE) is the leading Alt-A lender.  Their day in the spot-light is coming soon.

Here is yet another article on Casey’s misfortunes. 

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