Category: Stock Talk

I am amazed each day as I watch companies announce their latest iPhone or iPad Killer – the old proverbial skating to where the puck is.  Meanwhile Apple continues to skate to where the puck will be.  When I saw this article, Apple Positioned to Introduce Connected HDTV within 2-4 years, I said there they go again.

One day Steve Jobs may shed some insight into Apple’s secret sauce – surround yourself with smart people, go with your gut, yada, yada, yada.  In the mean time, I think Wired.com cracked the code in the article “How the Tablet Will Change the World.” To me the following says it all,

Apple all but announced that the iPad could damage its own desktop and laptop business, but Microsoft never seems to put all its weight behind groundbreaking products — especially if success may come at the expense of its Windows and Office cash cows.

Obsolescence comes with the territory: Mainframe Computer -> Mini Computer -> Personal Computer -> Mobile Computer. Steve Jobs understands this better than many, but more importantly – he acts on it faster than most.

The release of the first iPhone, July ’07, ushered in phase II of the mobile phone era. Before iPhone, the carriers wielded the power. The carriers dictated what features the phones supported and the cell phone manufacturers  fell in-line. I recently listened to a Research in Motion (RIMM) earnings call. The CEO kept going on and on about integration with the carrier and yadda yadda. They are so deeply tied in with the carriers it’s ridiculous. Palm is going down the tubes and are blaming Verizon for not promoting their phones enough. Hello – it’s not Verizon’s job to sell your phones.   Apple wanted no part of this model. They negotiated feverishly with AT&T for their independence and created a phone unlike any other.

I read a great book, Crossing the Chasm, many moons ago. It has become a classic in high tech marketing. The chasm is the great divide between the new and the old. DEC and Wang were huge companies in the mini computer era. They’re gone. Sucked into the chasm as computing transitioned from mini to personal computers.

All of the Phase I cell phone manufacturers are attempting to cross the chasm. Some have so much baggage that they simply won’t make it. RIMM has built its own wireless data network. It brings in a tremendous amount of revenue to the company.  However, it may not be needed in the Phase II world. Whether it can be carried over the chasm is to be determined. Apple and Google started in Phase II with a clean slate. That’s a tremendous advantage that may not be possible to overcome.

The chatter over on StockTwits inspired me to write this rant. Most are chart watchers over there. The chart is saying that something has to give real soon. Additionally, RIMM announces earnings in 3 weeks and it typically runs into earnings.  Will a sweet looking chart and an earnings announcement trump the company’s business issues?

My questions extend beyond the next 3 weeks.  I asked a question on Twitter this morning.

“Just curious – are there any non-BlackBerry user planning on buying a BB any time soon?”  I only got two response, but they were quite enlighten. The first person was from the US , “Not me….no way.” The second person was from South Africa “couple of friends picked up BB’s last few weeks, as well as myself,cell co’s pumping BB in a BIG way in South Africa lately.”

Although, it is only a small sample size it makes sense.  RIMM’s growth has to come from outside of North America.  How well can it compete with Nokia and Sony Ericsson on their turf?  On the domestic front, the casual blackberry user is definitely at risk.  I put myself in that category.  I am a long time customer, but I am ready to bail. My golf partner has already bailed. I am certain there are thousands of Verizon customers ready to make the switch as soon as AT&T loses its exclusive.

I also believe their power user base is at risk.  Those include people who pound out long emails and updates their blogs from the phone.  For them a virtual keyboard, ala the iPhone, is a non starter. Interestingly enough some of these people are beginning to crack. I have read blogs by power users that are saying that a virtual keyboard and software like swype is workable. If RIMM starts to lose those users it is over.

Personally, I believe that RIMM is hearing the giant sucking sound.  However, only time will tell whether they are sucked in or cross the chasm.

We are on a roll.  Let’s make a trilogy – Part III.

I have owned a Blackberry for 5 or 6 years. I will never forget the first time I checked my email outside of the office. That was so cool. I worked as a salesman for a software company and some days I wouldn’t have access to my computer all day. The ability to check and send email was a serious productivity boost.

My love affair with my Blackberry would continue until July 2007 when my golf partner walked on to the course with the iPhone. He could access the internet with the push of a button. There he was pulling up stock quotes on Yahoo. The hoops I had to jump through to get a stock quote wasn’t worth it. He could download apps and do all kinds of stuff. Nonetheless, I knew he would hate it – being a long time Blackberry user himself.

Weeks would pass and he was still loving it. My golf partner is 6’4″ – he had to at least hate the virtual keyboard. I was certain the keyboard would be too cramped for him. To my dismay, after a few weeks he didn’t think it was that big of a deal. When Apple dropped the price on the phone only a few of months after its release – I knew that would push him over the edge. Nothing. Apple gave all of the early adopters a gift card to buy Apple stuff. He took it in stride.

At this point, I was amazed. How could a fairly hard core Blackberry user change so easily? Not only was I amazed, but also pissed. Every time he whipped out his phone, to show off some neat feature, I wanted to throw my Blackberry into the woods. He kept asking me “when was I going to switch.” I said that I was not – Research in Motion (RIMM) would come up with an answer.

RIMM’s first attempt at an “iPhone equalizer” – the Storm was a bust. By the time the phone was released, the reviewers had thrashed it so badly that there was no way I was going to buy one. The people bold enough to buy them returned them in droves. Oh well, there was always version 2.

Apparently the Storm II was a little better, but the salesman in the Verizon store practically begged me not to buy it. Their experience was so brutal with the original Storm that more customer backlash was just not worth it. The Verizon salesman actually steered me to a LG phone that he was carrying and was quite happy with. I ended up buying the LG for my wife and continued carrying my aging Blackberry.

After failing to capture my attention with the Storm I or II, I was done with RIMM.  The only reason I didn’t have an iPhone now was due to Apple’s exclusive sales agreement with AT&T. I was fairly happy with Verizon and didn’t want to switch. Steve Jobs was sucking AT&T dry.  Being a shareholder, I couldn’t  blame him for that.   However, it did mean that I would have continue waiting for the exclusive to expire or try another cell phone vendor. I decided it was time to move on.

I thought that my prayers had been answered in November of last year (’09). The buzz was high around Motorola’s Droid. It had the slick Google Android OS. It didn’t have nearly as many apps as the iPhone, but the development community was cranking out new ones feverishly. The reviews were positive. This was it. This was my new phone, but then I put my hands on it. The phone felt like a brick. The keyboard sucked. Once again, I walked out of the Verizon store empty handed.

No rant is complete without a part 2.