Category: Portfolio Update

After playing second fiddle to the DOW and S&P 500 last year, technology is attempting to regain its status as top dog.  Looking at the NASDAQ’s top performers to date causes flashbacks from the good old days: Yahoo +15.3%, Sun Microsystems +11.8%, Apple +11.5%, Google +9.7%, Intel 9.3% and Dell 6.1%.  Google wasn’t around, but I owned all the others in the late 90s.  Maybe I should forget this commodity stuff and load up on tech.  As tempting as it is, the second time around is never quite like the first time.   I may dabble around with the Qs, but I will stick with the horse that brought me here.  However, I do want a iPhone.

Matter of fact, Gold proved this week that all of its double digit moves are not to the downside.  It closed up $13 on Friday.   For the week Gold, Silver and Cooper were up 3.3%, 1.5% and 2.7% respectively.  Oil still can’t figure out which way is up closing down 4.3% for the week.

Let’s review our stocks.

Continue reading “Week in Review 1/12 – What’s Up With Technology?”

This thread tracks real trades in one of my portfolios. Refer to backgrounder for more info.

Luckily my sells from the previous week were not at the bottom.  3 out of 4 of those stocks are still trading below their selling prices. PSQ is solidly lower, while FXI and GDX are barely below.  So, if I decide to buy back those positions more than likely it I will be a higher price.  Many will say, if you are going to buy them back at a higher price why sell. 

I have played the game of holding on to losing positions praying for them to come back and have lost more times than I have won.  The number one objective in trading is capital preservation.  As long as you have capital, you can stay in the game.  If you can keep your losses small – the odds of compensating for it with the next winner improve.  So, I take small losses and move on. 

Continue reading “Real Money Portfolio – Update 1/13”

This thread tracks real trades in one of my portfolios. Refer to backgrounder for more info.

It was an active week in this portfolio.  On Wednesday, after an initial move up Gold sold down hard for the remainder of the day.  I closed out GDX at the close.  It also looked like the general markets specifically technology was going to sell off as well.  So, I opened a position in PSQ.  PSQ moves opposite of the QQQQ.  So, it is a way to bet on the downside instead of shorting. Also I purchased a small position in Cresud (CRESY).

Continue reading “Real Money Portfolio – Update 1/5”

Copper 11.7%, Oil 7.76%, Gold 4.87% and Silver 1.66% all to the down side – all in the first trading week of the year.  If that is not enough to make you want to turn back the clock – I don’t know what is.  This was an absolute terrible start to the year in the commodity patch.  If the commodities were beating that badly – just imagine what happened to the commodity stocks.  GDX, an index of Gold stocks, was down 6.77% versus -4.87% for Gold.  This was beyond an ugly week. This was a butt ugly week.  The general market was down also, but not nearly as much.

Recall from my article “Navigating Thru a Trading Fiasco”, and this qualifies as a fiasco, it could be weeks to months before these commodities and stocks recover.  The best thing to do is to cash out and look for alternative investments.  I believe that before the year is over more money will be made in commodity and commodity stocks than the general market, but this damage needs to be repaired before it can move forward.

Let’s review our stocks.

Continue reading “Week in Review 1/5 – Commodities Thumped”

I am not going to try to put any lip stick on it – the dollar cost averaging experiment was a disappointment for 2006.  The goal is to not only outperform the S&P 500, but return double digits with little thought – simply discipline.  The thesis is that the stock market runs in 34 year cycles.  Stocks outperform hard assets like gold and silver in the first half of the cycle.  In the second half the the cycle, hard assets outperform stocks.  My assumption is that we are in the commodity phase of the cycle.  Read the “The No-Brainer Investment Strategy to Double-Digit Returns” for more details. 

Continue reading “The Dollar Cost Averaging Experiment – Final Results 2006”